National Forecast

Forecast issued Wednesday August 20, 2008
By Meteorologist Mike Danglovich

Tropical Storm Fay is still confounding forecasters with respect to her track and intensity, and has gained a reputation of not only being fickle but hydrophobic as well. Since the storm formed over Hispaniola last weekend, it has appeared to either hug or stay over land areas for the most part, and this morning, upon reaching Florida's east-central coastline, she made an abrupt turn northward to hug the coast once more.

Therefore, although still expected to strengthen, Fay may have trouble reaching hurricane strength since it now appears her track will continue to hug the Florida coastline before it turns more westward into northern Florida to the south of Jacksonville sometime Thursday morning. However, gusty winds, and very heavy rain will continue to move northward along the Florida coast. In fact, heavy rain will be the major problem as more then 15 inches could fall over the next several days from extreme southern Georgia to the northern Florida peninsula, with local amount over 20 inches possible.

Some Doppler radar estimates are showing amounts over 10 inches locally along the east-central Florida coastline. Hurricane Watches are up for the northern Florida coast, and tropical storm warnings are up from Southeastern Georgia to east-central Florida. The future track of Fay depends on how sharply she turns westward under strong high pressure now building over the northeastern part of the Nation. Right now, the forecast track has the storm bending sharply towards the coast into Thursday morning along the northern Florida coast, then bending more gradually towards a northwest heading that would take her through the Florida Panhandle through Sunday.

Fay Links:
Latest Advisory | NWS: Projected Path | Interactive Tracking Map | Video: Tropical Outlook

However, some computer models show a sharper westward turn, enough so that Fay could actually cross the Florida Peninsula once again and enter the Gulf of Mexico to the north of Tampa during Friday. These same computer models then show Fay strengthening again over the Gulf, then potentially coming onshore over the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane in five or six days. Since Fay has been fickle up till now, she may still have more tricks up her sleeve over the next several days. However, if I were to bet on whether she would actually enter the Gulf again, I would have to bet against that due to her known fear of water!

Fortunately for the flooded areas of Oklahoma and Texas, the heavy rains of the last several days will finally begin to taper off today as the stationary front that has caused the rain has begin to dissipate. The rain will become lighter and shift a bit eastward over the next couple of days, which will allow the flooding to begin to recede, but the recession may be slow since the rain will not fully end until possibly this weekend.